Turtles all the way down

The ability to connect with the audience may be more important than what the actors ostensibly are contending to do (govern / wrestle)

Looks matter.

Assassinating your opponent’s character is apparently a necessary part of the process.

Taking an extreme or stereotypical position is used to garner support.

It’s ok to take cheap shots or hit your opponent when they are down. In fact you’re expected to.

Some audience members buy the illusion of what the actor is saying. Others just laugh.

Waving the American flag is always good for cheap applause.

Some actors keep going at it when they should retire.

Rapid fans support their favorites without question.

The industry is a thinly veiled “work” of the audience (admitting to the audience that they are trying to change the tone of the campaign, then changing the tone of the campaign and pretending it was done for some other reason / admitting to the audience that the outcomes are pre-determined, then pretending that they are not).

I’m sick and tired of both.

Boo!

Deep-seated political differences aren’t simply moral and intellectual: They’re also biological.

In reflex tests of 46 political partisans, psychologists found that conservatives were more likely than liberals to be shocked by sudden threats.

Accompanying the physiological differences were deep differences on hot-button political issues: military expansion, the Iraq war, gun control, capital punishment, the Patriot act, warrantless searches, foreign aid, abortion rights, gay marriage, premarital sex and pornography.

Except that it’s hard to convince the conservatives that don’t believe in biology that this is true.

Obama: Damn, he’s good.

McCain: My money is on Huckabee for the VP choice.

The press: Content-free coverage.

This one is too much fun. Happy Friday.

I meant to post this two days ago, but time flies.

So McCain takes a big win, largely because Romney and Huckabee split the hardcore conservative vote. This begs the question of how much does getting elected president rely on two of your opponents stealing votes from one another?

Perot helped Clinton in 1992 and 1996 by taking votes from Bush Sr. and Dole, respectively. Bush Jr. won in 2000 probably because Nader took a few percentage points away from Gore.

Maybe it happens all the time.

Now that Romney’s out I expect Huckabee’s campaign to surge, but he may be effectively eliminated mathematically at this point. I also expect McCain, to head right in a major way over the next few months possibly picking up Huckabee as a running mate.

I was pleasantly surprised to see McCain win Florida. I’m not a huge fan of his, but he is clearly the lesser of evils in my mind when compared to Romney. Sticking to my belief that social conservatives always choose the president except when they splinter, I expect that Huckabee will drop out, they will flock to Romney, and eventually Romney will get the nod over McCain. However, if Huckabee stays in the race for another week, he might just pull away enough potential Romney support to give the nomination to McCain. So let’s hope the Huckster stays in.

On the Democrat side I still don’t have a strong preference of Hilary or Obama, though I lean towards Obama. My gut still says that Obama will fight off the Republican Character Assassination Machine ™ better and therefore possesses a greater chance of winning in November. However, right now it looks like Hilary has the edge.

So right now I would give the best odds to Hilary vs. Romney in November with Romney probably winning that contest. However it could still go any way amongst the big four (I’m officially writing Huckabee off, with great relief).

Apparently some people’s position on the political spectrum is highly relative.

When I hang around with conservatives, they tell me I’m a liberal. When I hang around with liberals, they tell me I’m a conservative. But does that in itself make me a moderate? I don’t think so. I have a few viewpoints that fall squarely into one camp or the other.

I won’t bore you with what they are.

The point is, in this endless season of campaigning, remember that people are not just red or blue. People are multi-dimensional and can put together their positions in combinations that are non-conventional but still valid.

A few gut feelings I have about the upcoming election:

• McCain won’t win the Republican nomination because he doesn’t appeal to the religious conservatives. Advantage Huckabee.
• If Clinton is nominated, she will likely lose in November. She has all of the Clinton baggage to overcome and the Republican defamation machine will have a lot to work with.
• If Obama is nominated, he will have a good chance of winning against any Republican candidate.

If I had to pick today, I think the odds are good for a Huckabee vs. Clinton contest, with Huckabee as the next president. Edwards, Thompson, Richardson, and Paul are done, whether they know it or not. Romney and Guiliani have an outside chance.